The import volume and price of iron ore and coal r

2022-08-14
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In the first July, the import volume and price of iron ore and coal rose simultaneously, and there is still uncertainty in the second half of the year.

for many steel enterprises, this is a dilemma. On the one hand, the price of imported iron ore has soared recently. On the other hand, the domestic steel price has also reached a high level, resulting in the influx of risk averse funds into non-ferrous metal varieties. If it does not rise in the future, the gains and losses of imported high-priced iron ore may be outweighed

data show that on August 17, the price of imported iron ore was $76 per ton, up $18 or 31% from the same period last year, and about 17% higher than the average price of $60.6 per ton in June. In June, China imported 625 million tons of iron ore and its concentrate, up 7.5% year-on-year, and the amount increased by 50% year-on-year

coal is also useful in similar situations. On August 11, according to cctd data, 5500 kcal of imported coal received 652 yuan/ton. Since August, the average price has exceeded 650 yuan per ton, which is in the rising channel. In June, China's coal import volume was 153 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, and the amount increased by 106.2% year-on-year

analyst Ma Li pointed out that at present, the domestic steel price has reached a new high in the field of metal mechanical properties for five years, and the short-term demand for iron ore will remain strong, because the prices of major steel varieties are still high, and the price of iron ore can also maintain a steady upward trend

however, enterprises also need to consider carefully. "After entering the winter heating period, although the situation of the iron and steel industry may continue to be strong, due to the limited production of steel mills in some parts of North China, which will affect the consumption of iron ore, it is unfavorable to the trend of iron ore prices." He said

the steel and coal market is favorable for imports

customs data show that the average import price of iron ore in March was $81.8 per ton, which fell to $60.7 per ton in June and continued to fall to $57 per ton in July. However, the data showed that on August 17, the import price of iron ore rebounded to $76 per ton

the data also showed that the iron ore price index in July was, on August, which was significantly higher than that in July. It was 710 on August 17, which was the highest in July and August

analyst Ma Li pointed out that steel prices and raw material prices normally rise and fall together, "but due to some special factors, the impact of steel and raw material prices may be opposite, and the price trend will also be different"

he believed that after March, the price of iron ore fell because domestic scrap replaced imported ore. The current rise in iron ore prices is related to the rapid increase in the utilization rate of steel production capacity

In September, China imported 625 million tons of iron ore and its concentrate, up 7.5% year-on-year

in terms of coal prices, the average price of imported coal has been rising since May this year. The average import price was about 520 yuan per ton in May, and reached nearly 600 yuan per ton in July. In August, prices are still rising. According to cctd data, on August 4 and 11, the price of 5500 kcal/ton imported coal was reported at 651 yuan and 652 yuan respectively

from the month, China imported 153 million tons of coal, with a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, reaching US $12.926 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 106.2%, and the average import price was about US $84.7 per ton

however, the 21st Century Business Herald learned that the current year-on-year increase in the number and amount of imported coal has been weak. The coal import volume in July fell by about 11% from the previous month to 19.46 million tons

months, and the national coal import volume increased by 33.8% year-on-year, 23.15% month on month and 18.2% month on month. In terms of year-on-year growth, the first quarter, the first half of the year and the first seven months were 152.15%, 117.2% and 106.2% respectively

Xing Lei, director of the Research Center for coal listed companies at the Central University of Finance and economics, pointed out that in previous years, economic growth slowed down and coal was relatively surplus. With the economic stabilization and market structure optimization since the second half of last year, the coal and steel market has improved

there are downward factors in prices in the second half of the year

in the second half of the year, there is still some uncertainty in the prices of steel and coal, and there are variables in the prices of imported iron ore and coal

Zhang Xiaoqiang, executive vice president of the China Center for international economic exchange, previously pointed out that China is the world's largest energy consumer, and coal consumption accounts for more than 60% of the primary consumption. There is a process to optimize the structure. There will be no major change in the demand structure in the short term, and after a major change in supply, supply will fall short of demand. First, the price will rise sharply, and then it will provide a lot of room for imports, As a result, coal imports increased significantly last year

Zhang Xiaoqiang believes that we should use more market-oriented and rule of law methods to reduce production capacity. We can't simply draw an equal sign between reducing production capacity and reducing production

according to the 21st Century Business Herald, domestic steel and coal production accelerated in the first July of this year, and some large coal and steel provinces produced well

in July 2017, China's raw coal output was 290 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, continuing to maintain rapid growth, but 2.1 percentage points lower than that in June. The average daily production in July was 9.5 million tons, 780000 tons less than that in June. In January, the raw coal output was 2.01 billion tons, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4%

in terms of crude steel, the output in July 2017 was 74.02 million tons, an increase of 10.3% year-on-year. Significantly higher than the output of 61.68 million tons in June, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.2%. In January, crude steel output was 492 million tons, an increase of 5.1% year-on-year

according to this, this year may be the year of positive growth again after the negative growth of crude steel in 2015. Weizengmin, a researcher at ruimaotong, pointed out that the large import of iron ore was still due to the clearing of the medium frequency furnace, which increased the operating rate of the blast furnace. The output of pig iron and crude steel may increase this year, and the import of iron ore may increase in the second half of the year

however, the 21st Century Business Herald learned that there are also factors that reduce the demand for iron ore and coal. For example, this year, the Hebei provincial government required that the utilization rate of steel production capacity in winter heating period should be reduced by half. In addition, from the perspective of fixed investment expenditure and the acceleration of plastic product production, 16 ministries and commissions have determined that the capacity of coal power will be reduced by 50million kW this year and 150million kW during the "13th five year plan", which is bad for coal demand. These factors may reduce the demand for imported iron ore and coal

xuhongcai, deputy chief economist of the China Center for international economic exchanges, believes that the overall economic development has stabilized this year, and the demand for steel raw materials has increased. To reduce production capacity is to improve product quality, technological progress, structural optimization and other means, and ultimately to cultivate market mechanisms

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